Russia and US in Afghanistan

Russia needs the US in Afghanistan

What happens in Afghanistan deeply concerns Russia. At the moment, uncertainty regarding Afghanistan’s future runs height with the withdrawal date of Western forces coming closer day by day (especially after recent fall to Islamic state of Iraq and Lebanon). The worse case scenario for the Russians, after the withdrawal, will be a complete take over by the Taliban. Chances of such an immediate takeover by the Taliban are very low. However in the absence of foreign support, it is not unthinkable that after the withdrawal, that the Taliban will take over Afghanistan in few years.

The US and Iran nuclear deal reached last year is a very recent example of how two countries with ideologies  on different ends of the spectrum can come together to achieve their political objectives. Russia faces serious threats to its stability from Islamic insurgencies. Recent suicide blasts in Volgograd were a painful reminder of this.

Historically, Russia has tried to suppress Islamic movements (also religious activities in general) not only in Russia but also in Central Asian states (especially in the time of the Soviet Union). The failure of such policies led  to the rise of Islamism in Central Asia (especially in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  

Russia has continued to provide support to Central Asian governments to fight Islamic insurgencies as it considers Central Asian countries as buffers states between it and the Islamic world.

The Afghan National Security Force has made some gains in recent years but their capability in absence of foreign funding and support is not clear, there has also been an increasing number of deaths, causing an impact on the morale. Meanwhile the Taliban on the other hand are patient and organized. They can make slow gains, gaining more support with every victory and moving towards a dominant position in Afghanistan. This will have a direct impact  on Russia’s buffer zones. It will be only a matter of time before the Taliban will make their way to neighboring countries to aid Islamic insurgents.

The only possible way for Russia to avoid this is to convince the international community to continue to its support Afghanistan and which is not going to be possible unless the Afghan president, signs the bilateral treaty with the Americans allowing them to keep certain bases and portion of its forces in Afghanistan. Although it is widely believed that the contract will be eventually signed, with every passing day there are increasing spats between the Afghans and the Americans.

The Russians here can play a very important role, they have strong ties with Afghanistan from the Soviet era and also through supporting groups that fought the Taliban after the fall of the Soviet Union. They can help the Americans convince the Afghans to sign the agreement. By doing so they will be indirectly facilitating the peace talks with Taliban and will have to come to terms with the Taliban having some power in the Afghan power structure. But this is the only way peace can be achieved.  

Even though these bases can potentially be used by Americans in future against the Russians, for anything from running spy network to influencing Afghan policies towards Russia, Moscow may conclude that the US are essential to keep Taliban out of a dominant position and hence keeping Russia’s  vital geopolitical interests safe. This convergence of interests between American and Russians can cause a strategic shift of alliances. This is an interesting situation that the Chinese may view with suspicion. They most certainly want to keep the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, but at the same time like Moscow they are keen to benefit from the natural resources in the country.