Russia
needs the US in Afghanistan
What
happens in Afghanistan deeply concerns Russia. At the moment, uncertainty regarding
Afghanistan’s future runs height with the withdrawal date of Western forces
coming closer day by day (especially after recent fall to Islamic state of Iraq
and Lebanon). The worse case scenario for the Russians, after the withdrawal,
will be a complete take over by the Taliban. Chances of such an immediate
takeover by the Taliban are very low. However in the absence of foreign
support, it is not unthinkable that after the withdrawal, that the Taliban will
take over Afghanistan in few years.
The
US and Iran nuclear deal reached last year is a very recent example of how two
countries with ideologies on different
ends of the spectrum can come together to achieve their political objectives.
Russia faces serious threats to its stability from Islamic insurgencies. Recent
suicide blasts in Volgograd were a painful reminder of this.
Historically,
Russia has tried to suppress Islamic movements (also religious activities in
general) not only in Russia but also in Central Asian states (especially in the
time of the Soviet Union). The failure of such policies led to the rise of Islamism in Central Asia
(especially in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) after the collapse of the Soviet
Union.
Russia
has continued to provide support to Central Asian governments to fight Islamic
insurgencies as it considers Central Asian countries as buffers states between
it and the Islamic world.
The
Afghan National Security Force has made some gains in recent years but their
capability in absence of foreign funding and support is not clear, there has
also been an increasing number of deaths, causing an impact on the morale. Meanwhile
the Taliban on the other hand are patient and organized. They can make slow
gains, gaining more support with every victory and moving towards a dominant position
in Afghanistan. This will have a direct impact
on Russia’s buffer zones. It will be only a matter of time before the
Taliban will make their way to neighboring countries to aid Islamic insurgents.
The
only possible way for Russia to avoid this is to convince the international
community to continue to its support Afghanistan and which is not going to be
possible unless the Afghan president, signs the bilateral treaty with the Americans
allowing them to keep certain bases and portion of its forces in Afghanistan. Although
it is widely believed that the contract will be eventually signed, with every
passing day there are increasing spats between the Afghans and the Americans.
The
Russians here can play a very important role, they have strong ties with
Afghanistan from the Soviet era and also through supporting groups that fought
the Taliban after the fall of the Soviet Union. They can help the Americans convince
the Afghans to sign the agreement. By doing so they will be indirectly facilitating
the peace talks with Taliban and will have to come to terms with the Taliban
having some power in the Afghan power structure. But this is the only way peace
can be achieved.
Even
though these bases can potentially be used by Americans in future against the
Russians, for anything from running spy network to influencing Afghan policies
towards Russia, Moscow may conclude that the US are essential to keep Taliban
out of a dominant position and hence keeping Russia’s vital geopolitical interests safe. This convergence
of interests between American and Russians can cause a strategic shift of
alliances. This is an interesting situation that the Chinese may view with
suspicion. They most certainly want to keep the Taliban from taking over
Afghanistan, but at the same time like Moscow they are keen to benefit from the
natural resources in the country.
