Iran,
world powers aim for final nuclear deal
Iran
and world powers embark Tuesday on the Herculean task of transforming an
interim nuclear deal into a long-term accord satisfying all sides and silencing
talk of war for good.
After
a decade of failure and rising tensions, US president has put the chances of
such an agreement at not more than 50-50 while Iranian foreign minister has
predicted difficult discussion.
It
comes after foreign ministers struck a deal in Geneva on November last year of
2013 and saw Iran agree to curb – for six months – some of its nuclear
activities in exchange for minor relief from painful sanctions.
The
agreement which came into force on January
this year 2014 extends the theoretical break out time needy by Iran which
denies seeking the bomb to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear
weapon.
In
return Iran is due to get over the six months some billion of money in
sanctions relief including 3$ billion in assets frozen in overseas bank accounts.
Iran’s
nuclear freeze is only temporary
although it can be extended and the bulk of UN and Western sanctions remain
continuing to deprive Iran of billions of dollars in oil revenues every week.
Under
the comprehensive deal now being sought which the parties aim to conclude and
commence implementing by November the powers will want Iran to scale back its
activities permanently.
In
exchange Iran would see all UN Security
council , US and EU sanctions lifted.
The
deal might include the closure of Iran’s facility slashing the number of
centrifuges enriching uranium cutting its stockpile of fissile material and
altering a new reactor being built Arak.
This
plus tighter UN inspections would not remove entirely Iran’s capability to get
the bomb but would make it substantially more difficult. According to US
president it would be impossible.
But
how such a deal goes down with
hardliners in the United States and in Israel, the Middle East’s sole if
undeclared nuclear power and also with Sunni Arab monarchies in the Gulf
remains to be seen.
I
think both sides would be willing to make compromises to meet the bottom lines
of the other side. The trouble is that both sides have hard men outside the
negotiating room who have to be satisfied.
Iranian
President called last week for the talks to be fair and constructive, while
Tehran has laid out a series of red lines including refusing to close down any
nuclear facilities or to stop medium level enrichment.
