Challenging of China
Peace with China is a far more important than power
over China.
The west the US especially has gotten itself into a fretful mood over the rise of China. Quite
unnecessarily so. The Chinese growth rate is slowing. China never will hit
double digit growth again. Why do we fuss so much every time China seems to
kick over the traces a little as with its declaration a few weeks ago of an air
defence zone. Over the south China Sea? China historically does not go in for
conquest. It prefers what he calls osmosis. China seems to have no territorial
ambitions beyond its current borders, a part
from Taiwan, which is a special case. The ruling communist party is not
by nature evangelical. Asia militarily would be a formidable undertaking. China
today faces an increasingly economically and politically powerful Russia in the
north Japan (the world’s third largest economy) and South Korea, with their US
military alliances to the east. The disinterestedness of trade and finance is
an anti-conflict potion. These days the flag has very little to do with availability. How could China benefit from depriving the US
of iron ore or computers? How could the US benefit from depriving China of oil
or as a haven for its vast savings? What spat over t he ownership of contested
islands in the South and East China seas would be worth a breakdown in such
commerce? Simply put the highest priority for the US is for the Chinese economy
to remain vibrant, growing and open to US, Japanese, South Korean and European
business and for its politics to remain non-nationalistic which means not
provoking it.
The US in fact has no recourse but to share power
with China in Asia. Over the long run this will means the US diluting a great
deal of its political authority in Asia. It must be prepared to accept Chinese
equality. The US must shunt aside its long held policy of exceptionalism. If it
wants China to follow the rules of the global community it must set a better
example itself. In recent years, the US has conducted naval hydrographic
operations in China’s Exclusive economic zone. It has conducted naval exercises
near the Yellow sea. This is not good. The US must ratify the UN’s Law of the
sea and obey it. But the US certainly does not want a hot war with China. Nor should
it allow itself to let matters slide into a Cold War. Peace with China is a far
more important than power over China.
