World Powers Nuclear Deal with Iran

IRAN, WORLD POWERS SEEK NUCLEAR DEAL.

Nuclear talks between Iran and world powers move to the next level on Tuesday as negotiators begin work on an ambitious lasting accord to silence for good fears about Tehran’s atomic ambitions.

Success might help put Iran and Washington on the road to normalizing relations 35 years bear fruit in other areas, not least in Syria. Failure could lead to conflict.

Expectation were not high, however ahead of the scheduled three-day Vienna meeting between Iran and the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany, expected to be the first in a series of tricky encounters.

It is probably as likely that we won’t get an agreement as it is that we will in Vienna for the talks.

But these negotiations are the best chance we have ever had for diplomacy to solve this most pressing of national security challenges.

Iran has long been suspected of seeking nuclear weapons, despite its denials, while the United States and Israel-widely assumed to have a formidable nuclear arsenal itself – have never ruled out military action.

Under this accord which took effect on January 20, Iran scaled back certain nuclear activities in exchange for minor relief from painful sanctions and a promise of no new sanctions.

For the first time the west accepted Iran enriching uranium, a process producing nuclear fuel but potentially also material for a bomb having previously demanded a total suspension.

But the freeze only lasts until July 20 although it can be extended and experts say that success in Geneva came at the price of postponing discussion on the really difficult issues.  

Under the comprehensive solution that the parties aim to sew up by November the six powers want Iran to scale back permanently or at least for a very long time its nuclear programme.

This might include closing the Fordo facility, slashing the number of centrifuges enriching uranium, cutting the stockpile of fissile material and altering a new reactor being built at Arak.

This plus much tighter UN inspections would not remove entirely Iran’s capability to get the bomb but would make it substantially more difficult. According to US president, it would be impossible.

In exchanging all UN security council US and EU sanctions on Iran – which are costing it billion of dollars every week in lost oil revenues, wreaking havoc on the economy – would be lifted.

The US president has to contend with members of Congress threatening more sanctions and demanding with Israel – that nothing short of a total dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear facilities will do.

Iranian President meanwhile shoes election in 2013 has helped thaw relations with the West, is already on thin ice with hardliners seeking to turn Khamenei against him. 

Iran Nuclear Deal with World Powers

Iran, world powers aim for final nuclear deal

Iran and world powers embark Tuesday on the Herculean task of transforming an interim nuclear deal into a long-term accord satisfying all sides and silencing talk of war for good.

After a decade of failure and rising tensions, US president has put the chances of such an agreement at not more than 50-50 while Iranian foreign minister has predicted difficult discussion.

It comes after foreign ministers struck a deal in Geneva on November last year of 2013 and saw Iran agree to curb – for six months – some of its nuclear activities in exchange for minor relief from painful sanctions.

The agreement which came  into force on January this year 2014 extends the theoretical break out time needy by Iran which denies seeking the bomb to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon.

In return Iran is due to get over the six months some billion of money in sanctions relief including 3$ billion in assets frozen in overseas bank accounts.

Iran’s nuclear freeze is  only temporary although it can be extended and the bulk of UN and Western sanctions remain continuing to deprive Iran of billions of dollars in oil revenues every week.

Under the comprehensive deal now being sought which the parties aim to conclude and commence implementing by November the powers will want Iran to scale back its activities permanently.

In exchange Iran would see  all UN Security council , US and EU sanctions lifted.

The deal might include the closure of Iran’s facility slashing the number of centrifuges enriching uranium cutting its stockpile of fissile material and altering a new reactor being built Arak.

This plus tighter UN inspections would not remove entirely Iran’s capability to get the bomb but would make it substantially more difficult. According to US president it would be impossible.

But how such a deal goes down  with hardliners in the United States and in Israel, the Middle East’s sole if undeclared nuclear power and also with Sunni Arab monarchies in the Gulf remains to be seen.

I think both sides would be willing to make compromises to meet the bottom lines of the other side. The trouble is that both sides have hard men outside the negotiating room who have to be satisfied.

Iranian President called last week for the talks to be fair and constructive, while Tehran has laid out a series of red lines including refusing to close down any nuclear facilities or to stop medium level enrichment.