INDIAN NUCLEAR
POSTURE
Indian nuclear weapons programme was originally motivated
more by the prestige factor than as a necessary means to meet real security
threats a gradual shift in India’s nuclear posture over the past few years has
been viewed as worrisome by the community of strategic thinkers. The statements
of Indian policymakers and military generals suggest a significant departure in its
declaratory, if not its operational variation, from the official nuclear
doctrine as revised in 203.
THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT NO NUCLEAR STATE IN THE WORLD IS TOTALLY IMMUNE TO SECURITY THREATS TO ITS NUCLEAR ASSETS, OR TO THE SIMPLE RISK OF SAFETY RELATED ACCIDENT.
Influenced by a strong scientific community, India
is moving away from its unequivocal policies of no first use (NFU) and
maintaining a credible minimum deterrent, India’s development of its nuclear
delivery capabilities can further play a destabilizing role by triggering a
nuclear arms race in the region. Because of its geopolitical weight, New Delhi’s
choices will have significant implications both for deterrence stability in the
region and the future of the evolving world nuclear order.
The Indian nuclear establishment has also ditched
its long-held claim of maintaining a credible minimum deterrent. Although much
confusion surrounds what minimum means
in numbers credible minimum deterrence is no longer the driving aim of
India’s nuclear doctrine. Achieving a credible minimum deterrent towards both
of its primary strategic adversaries, China and Pakistan means substantially
different levels of capability. What is credible toward China will not be
minimum toward Pakistan and what is minimum toward Pakistan cannot be credible
toward China. The probability of a major war with China is not very high so India’s
nuclear posture should be framed keeping in view its primary deterrent
adversary which is Pakistan and against whom they initially wanted to build a
credible minimum deterrent. In addition, China is so advanced in nuclear
capability that perhaps India will never be able to match China’s nuclear
arsenal or delivery capability. But the prevailing attitudes toward nuclear
weaponry among Indian nuclear security managers betray an over-obsession with
China. such attitude will achieve nothing and start an unending nuclear arms
race in South Asia. India’s conventional superiority could easily deter
Pakistan from any attack against India, so India’s nuclear capability never had
a strategic justification but was a desire for prestige.
There is no gainsaying the fact that India’s nuclear
establishment is going down this potentially dangerous path due to the
overriding influence of nuclear Scientifics and technical bureaucracies. Like Pakistan,
the Civilian political leadership due to
complications of domestic politics, is not in a position to exercise authority
over India’s vast nuclear establishment.
On the other hand, the security of Pakistan’s nuclear
programme has always received attention in the international media due to
domestic political instability and growing international militant threats. There
is little public discussion about
threats to the security of India’s huge civilian and military nuclear
infrastructure. Instead, an overriding assumption exists that relevant agencies
in India provide enough security to nuclear infrastructure. The fact of the
matter is that no nuclear state in the world is totally immune to security
threats to its nuclear assets, or to the simple risk of safety-related
accidents. Giving the rapid growth of India’s nuclear arsenal over the past few
years, different homegrown insurgents and militants have the potential to
compromise India’s nuclear security. But there is no public information
available about practical measures taken by New Delhi to counter internal
threats to its nuclear weapons.
The current changes in India’s strategic posture and
deployment patterns, whether politically sanctioned or not will surely force China
and Pakistan to respond in ways that will likely prove determinate to Indian and global security. India has been modernizing
and expanding its forces both vertically and horizontally. Despite the world
attention focused India’s nuclear doctrine may convert the terrorism. The mad
pursuit of research Defense is totally inconsistent with anodic ability and
uncertainty. Both India and Pakistan should halt expansion of their nuclear arsenals
in order to enhance regional security.
