The
security impact in Afghanistan
The
US officials are struggling again with Afghan President after painful and
prolonged negotiations, they concluded a draft bilateral security agreement
last year that lays the foundation for leaving US military forces in
Afghanistan after 2014. It is also expected to involve 10000 to 12000 US troops
with counterterrorism, training and other responsibilities in support of Afghan
forces. Most US experts on Afghanistan believe that such a residual force is
critical if Afghan forces are to continue to professionalize. Only with
such help will they have a reasonable
chance of containing the Taliban and giving Afghan authorities the space to
negotiate a political settlement that includes the Taliban. Some NATO forces
would remain but only if US troops stay.
According
the US experts that without residual forces, the billions of dollars in
financial support promised for Afghanistan security forces and for Afghanistan’s
economic development will not materialize. Some of them believe that any Afghan
government would survive long without this assistance. So the stakes are high
for Afghanistan and for preserving the investment of lives and treasure that
the United States and its coalition allies have made over the past 13 years.
Initially
Afghan president said that he would sign the agreement after a loyajirga, a
traditional congregation of Afghan leaders, approved the impact. The loyajirga
approved the deal in November before but Karzazi demanded further concessions
an end to counterterrorism raids into Afghan homes at high active US support
for the peace process with the Taliban and non-interference in the presidential
election that will determine of his successor.
At
last he has threatened to leave the matter to his successor. US official have
responded by pressuring Karzai directly and indirectly. They have set a succession
of deadlines and said the agreement must be signed within weeks not in months. So
far nothing has worked. There is one option would be for President Obama to
make a public statement praising Afghanistan’s progress in assuming responsibility
for its security, improving the education, health and well-being of its citizen
and preparing for the coming election to be held in April.
Obama
has said directly to US forces to curtail all but essential night raids. He is committed
to facilitating the peace process and pledges full support for an election free
from all outside influences. Soon after, Obama could announce the number of
troops that he is prepared to leaved in Afghanistan post 2014 and direct the
Pentagon to develop plans on that basis, but the Karzai’s had, encourages
further delay and makes the United States look desperate.
Obama
should make clear that his commitment of troops is dependent on the bilateral
security agreement being signed. But a signing by a new Afghan president would
give more than enough time to complete the necessary US military planning
before year’s end.
Obama
should avoid any suggestion that he might embrace a Zero option and leave to US
troops in Afghanistan after 2014. Almost every Afghan expert believes that
would destabilize Afghanistan, threaten the outcome of the election and risk
the collapse of Afghanistan security forces.
All
of this would profoundly affect US security interests. Afghanistan again would
become a haven for terrorists who history whose would attack US interests and
territory. Afghanistan would contribute to destabilizing a nuclear armed
Pakistan and the Afghan people would forfeit the progress they have made with
our help in building a more tolerant inclusive secure and prosperous society.
