Peace Talk with Taliban Finished

PEACE TALKS WITH TALIBAN BUT NO RESULTS YET.

The first round of peace talks between Pakistani government and Taliban committee have finished now. The Taliban committee has told the media that the talks went well but the increase in suicide attacks and the target killings of civilians and security personnel paint a gloomy and different pictures.

The Pakistani government and Taliban apologists have always claimed that the talks are for peace within the country. Really? Were the suicide attacks on polio workers and hand grenades being hurled at a cinema in Peshawar for peace? Do Pakistanis need that kind of peace? The Taliban disowned and condemned the attacks, apparently to kill two birds with one stone; to continue the talks process only in name so as to be protected from US drones and kill those who were ever involved in any action against them. This provided every opportunity to Taliban apologists to blame the attacks on a third force.

There has been no US drone strike or the targeting of any notorious terrorist figure during the talks so far. Then why are civilians and security personnel frequently being attacked? Taliban apologists have no answer to this. The Taliban has ultimately lost patience and has claimed suicide attack in Karachi on day before yesterday. Taliban apologists will certainly not be affected by this confession as their conscience has been dead a long time. They love their life and this world so much that they cannot even blame the terrorists for pushing the so-called talks towards failure.

There have surfaced, through the Pakistani and the foreign media, the three preconditions by the Taliban for the talks. These conditions if met would render the sacrifices of 50 thousand civilians and thousands of security personnel in the war on terror wasted leaving this country with a Taliban proposed government.

These are just the preconditions at the very onset of the talks. It is believed that there are more than four thousand Taliban inmates in Pakistani prisons. Suppose they are all released but the talks fail, would our security forces be able to catch them again/ have we ever contemplated how the state of Pakistan will handle the situation if half of them then return as suicide bombers/ this time the infamous Lal Mosque cleric a Maulana threatened the state of Pakistan when he said that the Taliban has 500 female suicide bombers in a bid to have all the Taliban conditions met.

Talk of peace with these preconditions never produce results. Unproductive Indo-Pak  talks are a glaring example. The Taliban preconditions for the talks portray the same picture. The Taliban preconditions are nothing more than an effort to revive and strengthen the militant organization.

The word “Pakistan” means the land of pure people. Are the terrorists the pure people? The terrorists brand of religion and their acts are anti-pakistan and anti Islamic. Pakistan and the terrorists cannot coexist. Pakistan has no place for the terrorists. The Taliban preconditions for the talks imply that they want their demands fulfilled by force and a on every level. The Pakistani government’s  so called peace talks  initiative is a desirous experiment and sets a precedent that the state will hold talks with those forces that are capable of killing maximum civilians and security personnel. It is time that the federal government and Taliban apologists decide whether they want Pakistan to be the land of the pure or the land of the terrorists.

COLD WAR BETWEEN USA & RUSSIA

THE NEW COLD WAR BETWEEN USA & RUSSIA

The Russian positions that have kept the upper hand, not to mention that Putin saved Obama from yet  another Middle East war. As Syria was a Russian win, no wonder Washington dreams of a win in Ukraine. We can interpret what’s going, on now as a remix of the 2004 Orange Revolution. But the big picture goes way back – from NATO’s expansion in the 1990s to American NGOs trying to destabilize Russia, NATO’s first with Georgia, and those missile defence schemes so close to Russian borders.

The new cold war  same as the old cold war. Same but different one day it is the myriad implications of Washington’s pivoting to Asia, as in the containment of China the next day, it is the perennial attempt to box Russia in. never a dull moment in the New Great Game in Eurasia. On Russia the denigration of all things Sochi- to the inherent stupidity of Western corporate media standards, was just a subplot of the main show, which  always gets personal; the relentless demonization of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

US think Tankland now also peddles the notion that the Obama is expertly adept at a balance of power strategy. To include Libya as part of this strategy is a sick  joke; Libya post Gaddafi is a failed state courtesy of humanitarian bombing by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Meanwhile, in Syria the US strategy boils down to let Aras kill Arabs in droves.

Iran is way more complex. Arguably the Obama administration calculates that through talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany. It will be able to outmaneuver the Russians, who are close to Tehran. This assuming the Obama administration really wants a nuclear deal with Iran that would later release the floodgates of Western world.

The US strategy rules that street protests should lead to regime change. It applies to the Ukraine, but it does not apply to Thailand. Washington wants regime change in the Ukraine for one reason only; in the wider new Great Game in Eurasia context that would be the rough equivalent of Texas defecting from the US and becoming a Russian ally. Still this gambit is bound to fail. Moscow has myriad ways to deploy economic leverage in Ukraine; it has access to much better Intel than the Americans; and the protester/gangs are just a noisy minority.

Washington tough won’t give up, as it sees both the political crises in Ukraine as the emerging financial crisis in Kazakhstan as opportunities to threaten Moscow’s economic/strategic interests. It is as if the Beltway was praying for a widespread financial crisis in the Russia led Customs Union Russia Kazakhstan and Belarus, pray in fact is all they have got while the EU, for the entire grandiose, theoretical wishful thing, remains a divided mess.

Iran Nuclear Deal with World Powers

Iran, world powers aim for final nuclear deal

Iran and world powers embark Tuesday on the Herculean task of transforming an interim nuclear deal into a long-term accord satisfying all sides and silencing talk of war for good.

After a decade of failure and rising tensions, US president has put the chances of such an agreement at not more than 50-50 while Iranian foreign minister has predicted difficult discussion.

It comes after foreign ministers struck a deal in Geneva on November last year of 2013 and saw Iran agree to curb – for six months – some of its nuclear activities in exchange for minor relief from painful sanctions.

The agreement which came  into force on January this year 2014 extends the theoretical break out time needy by Iran which denies seeking the bomb to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon.

In return Iran is due to get over the six months some billion of money in sanctions relief including 3$ billion in assets frozen in overseas bank accounts.

Iran’s nuclear freeze is  only temporary although it can be extended and the bulk of UN and Western sanctions remain continuing to deprive Iran of billions of dollars in oil revenues every week.

Under the comprehensive deal now being sought which the parties aim to conclude and commence implementing by November the powers will want Iran to scale back its activities permanently.

In exchange Iran would see  all UN Security council , US and EU sanctions lifted.

The deal might include the closure of Iran’s facility slashing the number of centrifuges enriching uranium cutting its stockpile of fissile material and altering a new reactor being built Arak.

This plus tighter UN inspections would not remove entirely Iran’s capability to get the bomb but would make it substantially more difficult. According to US president it would be impossible.

But how such a deal goes down  with hardliners in the United States and in Israel, the Middle East’s sole if undeclared nuclear power and also with Sunni Arab monarchies in the Gulf remains to be seen.

I think both sides would be willing to make compromises to meet the bottom lines of the other side. The trouble is that both sides have hard men outside the negotiating room who have to be satisfied.

Iranian President called last week for the talks to be fair and constructive, while Tehran has laid out a series of red lines including refusing to close down any nuclear facilities or to stop medium level enrichment.

Taliban & Women of Tribal Areas

Taliban & Women of Tribal Areas

Now a days Pakistan is preparing to define the parameters of talks with the Taliban, but here some questions and concert are missing about Tribal Area’s women. The specifically the question of women in the FATA has so far been omitted from the discourse in the mainstream of Pakistani media. During the past tenure FATA has largely been limited to drone attacks martyrs versus non-martyrs, the US led war or our own war military operations and the subsequent displacement of large number of internationally displaced persons. The human side of this war especially its gender effects is rarely discussed in Pakistani media. The miseries of women in FATA because of mass migration internal displacement, rape abuse and killings in this war have received little attention our sympathy. No help is available for women widowed or sexually abused, and their children semi-orphaned during this war.

Women and the children in camps and different villages are traumatized but because of conservative cultural norms and traditions, they cannot seek help or counseling. Women are less likely to share their burdens however and have learnt to dull their feelings and remain silent.

the Taliban’s foremost ideological agenda seemed to be annihilation of educational institutions by the Taliban were coupled with girls being banned from attending schools. There are news reports that the remaining schools were taken over by the army as base camps. According to a FATA official nearly 500 schools were bombed in recent years. With less than three percent literacy rate among FATA women the destruction of infrastructure and forcefully stopping girls from going to school has further affected the lives of women in one of the poorest region in the world.

The education sector suffers from bombing of schools by the Taliban, the health sector has also had a major setback in the targeting of polio workers in the region of Pakistan. The already non-existent health infrastructure in Federal Tribal Areas has 50 hospitals of its estimated seven million population. There is one bed for every 2500 people as compared to 1500 in the rest of Pakistan. For a population of 1890 only one doctor is available and a mere 45 percent of people have access to safe drinking water. The Taliban banned women and children cannot visit health clinics, thus affecting their health and wellbeing. During Taliban sharia rule in Afghanistan, many women died of minor ailments because of their restricted mobility and the added restriction that women could only by treated by female doctors. The Taliban control in FATA has created a system that runs parallel to the one already operating albeit dysfunctionally, making it more oppressive and further subjugating women in the region. The recent development of talks with the Taliban and the subsequent demand of Taliban imposed sharia ignored the question of women. In fact they ignore the lives of people in FATA. Does this means that the impending imposition of officials sharia will replace the old system operating in FATA. Will imposition of sharia with state blessing acknowledge the basic rights of women/ will women’s right to education, health care and free movement are ensued?

All these basic concerns of the women  in FATA who are already burq-clad, have restricted mobility and are suppressed in the name of patriarchy should be addressed if we want to talk about durable solutions in the region. Women become the worst victims of war and the biggest stakeholders of peace. How does our country expect a return to peace when women, who are already a part of the marginalized system, will be further persecuted with state blessings rule and their treatment of women are visible next door to us. Ignoring the question of women and their stake in the possible imposition of the Taliban version of sharia in FATA in our dialogue with the Taliban  rule and their treatment of women are visible next door to  us. Ignoring the question of women and their stake in the possible imposition of the Taliban version of sharia in FATA in our dialogue with that Taliban is criminal neglected and one that our liberals are quit about since achieving peace is a desperate priority for the state. Recently the senate passes a resolution asking the government to protect the rights of women and minorities in the peace talks but how is that resolution extendible or binding on the government when FATA outside the jurisdiction of parliament?

Peace talks with Taliban

Peace talks with Taliban

It was perhaps inevitable that the wave of intensified attacks by terrorists since the talks with the Pakistani Taliban began should sooner or later become a serious threat to the very continuation of the dialogue. That point appeared to have been reached on Friday in Pakistan when the two committees appointed by the government of Pakistan and Taliban met later producing a joint statement. The statement reveals more in what it does not say rather than what it explicitly spells out. The committees want the Taliban to suspend all terrorist attacks while the talks are ongoing. In a bit of face saving, the Taliban appointed committee put in the two cents worth by asking the government too not to take any actions that may impact negatively on the talks. As though  the government has actually lifted even a finger to assault the terrorists, one positive in the statement was the call for the Taliban to release kidnaps of former Chief minister of Punjab’s son. Hone hopes that the talks process will at least yield this humanitarian outcome. The Taliban appointed committee head by a Maulana  called an Ulema conference on Saturday to garner support for the peace talks. He also voiced his hope that a ceasefire would be achieved with 48 hours according Pakistan standard time. We shall see the Taliban are being consulted by the Maulana and company regarding the government’s strict message that a continuation of the attacks and the talks cannot run side by side. In the first 45 days of 2014, 46 attacks have occurred all over the country in which several people have been killed including civilians and personnel of the security forces and several were injured. All this was going on while not a single drone strike was in evidence since December 2013. That should take the wind out of the sails of those like imran who had pegged the terrorist attacks to realization against drones. Another hand General Kayani had said a military operation would bring down terrorist attacks by 40 percent straight away of the 35 attacks since January. All the other attacks have either been denied by them or a pregnant silence maintained. Conspiracy therories of a third force operation to sabotage the peace talks have provide to be so much nhot air. Attacks in Karachi and elwswhere in the country are continuing. A rangers sector commander in Karachi escaped a suicide bombing on Friday but four people including ranger officer were also injured and killed. This is the same area in which three polio workers were gunned down last month, Peshawar’s cinemas have closed indefinitely after two recent blasts. The prospects for peace talks were always dim. First and foremost what the growing frustration of the committees wows is that the composition of these committee in which the government or elected members of parliament on the one hand and Taliban on the other are not directly represented, have no powers to take decision but can only act as conducts passing massages back and forth between the government and the Taliban. This could turn out to be a long and cumbersome process which if the terrorist incidents continue, could come a cropper soon. Will the civilian and military sides agree on what is to be done and how to go about it? The next few days hear for better watching. 

Civil War & Taliban

Civil War & Pakistani Taliban

Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Karachi that killed many peoples and civilians  and injured others. Ostensibly as revenge for the killing of Taliban commander last may. The Pakistani Taliban negotiating said it was almost ready for a ceasefire if the government promised not to take any military action. We don’t yet know what it seems clear that no matter what the government does the Taliban will find excuses to continue attacks. Despite a halt in drone strikes since December and no action by the military since mid January the Taliban claim they don’t trust the army and trust the government little more but the question remains should we trust them? If the continuous stream of terrorist attacks is any indication we have no reason to. Meanwhile member of the Taliban negotiating team have openly declared their support for the militants and made claims about hundreds of suicide bombers ready to unleash terror. Naked threats and the continuing use of force have made the Taliban strategy painfully clear, and the government can no longer afford to stick its head in the sand about them; the Taliban are using the time and space from negotiations to prepare while continuing to sow terror essentially weakening the government’s resolve to fight back. At the same time, negotiations have given them a plate form to preach their ideology on mainstream media, lambasting the government and army while claiming to be fighting for constitutional rights. Attacks on infrastructure threaten to destroy what little Pakistan has built over the last 50 years and turn the country into another Afghanistan. A country without infrastructure would be that much easier for the Taliban to control, which is why they target civil and military installations necessary to maintain effective state control. The Taliban vision of the future is this a broken army that is too afraid to attack because of the possibility of widespread urban warfare; co-option of the state by forcing their representatives into the highest official positions; control of the courts through the same method; enforcement of their ideology on the streets with bands of armed thugs. With this in mind, the Taliban aim to provoke a full scale civil war across the country, eventually letting them control whatever battered remnants remain after thousands have died. From its cowed statements the government of Pakistan hasn’t waked up to this fact yet through awareness might be growing – slowly – as interior ministry of Pakistan explained her statement. However with the Taliban preparing for full scale war time is of the essence and the government of Pakistan must wake up before it is too late and the country is in a position that makes the last few years look like Eid by comparison. 

Talks that are more conductive and negotiations seem to be in vogue right now with the Pakistani government pulling out all the stops in having a dialogue, even with the terrorists. However much less controversial are the talks that PM of Pakistan is currently in Turkey. The usual jingles were heard and promises made on enhancing cooperation and pouring in all efforts to sustain peace in the region. However  there was one stand out point made by none other than PM of Pakistan who vowed to facilitate in every way possible peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan through an Afghan led and Afghan owned process. Afghan President Mr. Karzai finally voiced his acknowledgement of the presence of dreaded Mullah Fazlullah, the head of the Taliban of Pakistan in Afghanistan where he is enjoying a relatively safe haven.  He has voiced his displeasure that the Mullah 's presence there is a direct consequence of inaction and is a violation of the territory of his country by the militants. Mullah Fazlullah is enjoying safety and refuge in the stronghold of the Haqqani network where the writ of the Afghan security forces and government just does not seem to extend. the fact that Karzai has displayed his refusal to allow this stalemate to carry on much further may mean that the Mullah's number will soon be up. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have been in a tense gridlock on this issue for a while now blaming one another for providing sanctuary to the others enemy: Mullah Fazlullah for Pakistan and the Haqqani network for Afghanistan. These talks seem to point towards a semi-truce where both nations have decided to stop throwing the ball into the other court and are instead moving forward. 
Pakistan and Afghanistan have braced themselves for the aftereffects of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan at the end of this year, whatever they may be. We can carry on all we want about facilitation and acknowledgement of key events but the negotiations occurring in Pakistan along with the daily bombings and attacks by the terrorists will be a key factor in deciding how everything will go post during  the year 2014.

SAVE WILDLIFE

China holds the key to saving Africa’s wildlife.

Just 25 years ago, the convention on international Trade in Endangered species banned the worldwide trade in ivory products. This agreement marked the first coordinated international effort to stop the slaughter of endangered elephants and rhinos in Africa. Yet despite a fall in poaching levels in the nineties, they have risen once more fuelled by demand from the Far East for medicinal products.

According to a recent UN reports, nearly 25000 rhino remain in the wild and more than 10000 were killed in South Africa along last year. Prices for horns and tusks have never been higher. Between five and 10 percent of Africa’s remaining 400000 elephants are killed each year. If something is not done, they could be extinct within two decades.

These stark figures form the backdrop to the conference opening today in London, when ministers and wildlife campaigners from 50 countries will gather in an attempt to crack down on this grotesque trade a trade so lucrative that it has wider implications than wildlife preservation. The knock on effects cause political instability in the countries concerned, with  international criminal networks, rebel militias and terrorist groups drawn to the profits that can be made. The human cost in high too with more than 10000 rangers killed in recent years trying to stop the poachers.

What can be done? It is hard to deter poachers by force, given the money that can be made even lengthy jail sentences fail to deter, since few prosecutions are ever mounted. No the really key to ending this despicable trade is to tackle the demand side and it is to countries in eastern Asia notably China, that we must look for urgent action.

Beijing continues to operate a legal market in ivory as a result of a one off exemption granted in 2008. This is stoking demand, and must be closed down if any progress is to be made. The Chinese also need to embark on education programmes to debunk the idea that tusks, horns and tiger bones have any useful medical properties.