Civil War & Taliban

Civil War & Pakistani Taliban

Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Karachi that killed many peoples and civilians  and injured others. Ostensibly as revenge for the killing of Taliban commander last may. The Pakistani Taliban negotiating said it was almost ready for a ceasefire if the government promised not to take any military action. We don’t yet know what it seems clear that no matter what the government does the Taliban will find excuses to continue attacks. Despite a halt in drone strikes since December and no action by the military since mid January the Taliban claim they don’t trust the army and trust the government little more but the question remains should we trust them? If the continuous stream of terrorist attacks is any indication we have no reason to. Meanwhile member of the Taliban negotiating team have openly declared their support for the militants and made claims about hundreds of suicide bombers ready to unleash terror. Naked threats and the continuing use of force have made the Taliban strategy painfully clear, and the government can no longer afford to stick its head in the sand about them; the Taliban are using the time and space from negotiations to prepare while continuing to sow terror essentially weakening the government’s resolve to fight back. At the same time, negotiations have given them a plate form to preach their ideology on mainstream media, lambasting the government and army while claiming to be fighting for constitutional rights. Attacks on infrastructure threaten to destroy what little Pakistan has built over the last 50 years and turn the country into another Afghanistan. A country without infrastructure would be that much easier for the Taliban to control, which is why they target civil and military installations necessary to maintain effective state control. The Taliban vision of the future is this a broken army that is too afraid to attack because of the possibility of widespread urban warfare; co-option of the state by forcing their representatives into the highest official positions; control of the courts through the same method; enforcement of their ideology on the streets with bands of armed thugs. With this in mind, the Taliban aim to provoke a full scale civil war across the country, eventually letting them control whatever battered remnants remain after thousands have died. From its cowed statements the government of Pakistan hasn’t waked up to this fact yet through awareness might be growing – slowly – as interior ministry of Pakistan explained her statement. However with the Taliban preparing for full scale war time is of the essence and the government of Pakistan must wake up before it is too late and the country is in a position that makes the last few years look like Eid by comparison. 

Talks that are more conductive and negotiations seem to be in vogue right now with the Pakistani government pulling out all the stops in having a dialogue, even with the terrorists. However much less controversial are the talks that PM of Pakistan is currently in Turkey. The usual jingles were heard and promises made on enhancing cooperation and pouring in all efforts to sustain peace in the region. However  there was one stand out point made by none other than PM of Pakistan who vowed to facilitate in every way possible peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan through an Afghan led and Afghan owned process. Afghan President Mr. Karzai finally voiced his acknowledgement of the presence of dreaded Mullah Fazlullah, the head of the Taliban of Pakistan in Afghanistan where he is enjoying a relatively safe haven.  He has voiced his displeasure that the Mullah 's presence there is a direct consequence of inaction and is a violation of the territory of his country by the militants. Mullah Fazlullah is enjoying safety and refuge in the stronghold of the Haqqani network where the writ of the Afghan security forces and government just does not seem to extend. the fact that Karzai has displayed his refusal to allow this stalemate to carry on much further may mean that the Mullah's number will soon be up. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have been in a tense gridlock on this issue for a while now blaming one another for providing sanctuary to the others enemy: Mullah Fazlullah for Pakistan and the Haqqani network for Afghanistan. These talks seem to point towards a semi-truce where both nations have decided to stop throwing the ball into the other court and are instead moving forward. 
Pakistan and Afghanistan have braced themselves for the aftereffects of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan at the end of this year, whatever they may be. We can carry on all we want about facilitation and acknowledgement of key events but the negotiations occurring in Pakistan along with the daily bombings and attacks by the terrorists will be a key factor in deciding how everything will go post during  the year 2014.