Iran Nuclear Deal with World Powers

Iran, world powers aim for final nuclear deal

Iran and world powers embark Tuesday on the Herculean task of transforming an interim nuclear deal into a long-term accord satisfying all sides and silencing talk of war for good.

After a decade of failure and rising tensions, US president has put the chances of such an agreement at not more than 50-50 while Iranian foreign minister has predicted difficult discussion.

It comes after foreign ministers struck a deal in Geneva on November last year of 2013 and saw Iran agree to curb – for six months – some of its nuclear activities in exchange for minor relief from painful sanctions.

The agreement which came  into force on January this year 2014 extends the theoretical break out time needy by Iran which denies seeking the bomb to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon.

In return Iran is due to get over the six months some billion of money in sanctions relief including 3$ billion in assets frozen in overseas bank accounts.

Iran’s nuclear freeze is  only temporary although it can be extended and the bulk of UN and Western sanctions remain continuing to deprive Iran of billions of dollars in oil revenues every week.

Under the comprehensive deal now being sought which the parties aim to conclude and commence implementing by November the powers will want Iran to scale back its activities permanently.

In exchange Iran would see  all UN Security council , US and EU sanctions lifted.

The deal might include the closure of Iran’s facility slashing the number of centrifuges enriching uranium cutting its stockpile of fissile material and altering a new reactor being built Arak.

This plus tighter UN inspections would not remove entirely Iran’s capability to get the bomb but would make it substantially more difficult. According to US president it would be impossible.

But how such a deal goes down  with hardliners in the United States and in Israel, the Middle East’s sole if undeclared nuclear power and also with Sunni Arab monarchies in the Gulf remains to be seen.

I think both sides would be willing to make compromises to meet the bottom lines of the other side. The trouble is that both sides have hard men outside the negotiating room who have to be satisfied.

Iranian President called last week for the talks to be fair and constructive, while Tehran has laid out a series of red lines including refusing to close down any nuclear facilities or to stop medium level enrichment.

Taliban & Women of Tribal Areas

Taliban & Women of Tribal Areas

Now a days Pakistan is preparing to define the parameters of talks with the Taliban, but here some questions and concert are missing about Tribal Area’s women. The specifically the question of women in the FATA has so far been omitted from the discourse in the mainstream of Pakistani media. During the past tenure FATA has largely been limited to drone attacks martyrs versus non-martyrs, the US led war or our own war military operations and the subsequent displacement of large number of internationally displaced persons. The human side of this war especially its gender effects is rarely discussed in Pakistani media. The miseries of women in FATA because of mass migration internal displacement, rape abuse and killings in this war have received little attention our sympathy. No help is available for women widowed or sexually abused, and their children semi-orphaned during this war.

Women and the children in camps and different villages are traumatized but because of conservative cultural norms and traditions, they cannot seek help or counseling. Women are less likely to share their burdens however and have learnt to dull their feelings and remain silent.

the Taliban’s foremost ideological agenda seemed to be annihilation of educational institutions by the Taliban were coupled with girls being banned from attending schools. There are news reports that the remaining schools were taken over by the army as base camps. According to a FATA official nearly 500 schools were bombed in recent years. With less than three percent literacy rate among FATA women the destruction of infrastructure and forcefully stopping girls from going to school has further affected the lives of women in one of the poorest region in the world.

The education sector suffers from bombing of schools by the Taliban, the health sector has also had a major setback in the targeting of polio workers in the region of Pakistan. The already non-existent health infrastructure in Federal Tribal Areas has 50 hospitals of its estimated seven million population. There is one bed for every 2500 people as compared to 1500 in the rest of Pakistan. For a population of 1890 only one doctor is available and a mere 45 percent of people have access to safe drinking water. The Taliban banned women and children cannot visit health clinics, thus affecting their health and wellbeing. During Taliban sharia rule in Afghanistan, many women died of minor ailments because of their restricted mobility and the added restriction that women could only by treated by female doctors. The Taliban control in FATA has created a system that runs parallel to the one already operating albeit dysfunctionally, making it more oppressive and further subjugating women in the region. The recent development of talks with the Taliban and the subsequent demand of Taliban imposed sharia ignored the question of women. In fact they ignore the lives of people in FATA. Does this means that the impending imposition of officials sharia will replace the old system operating in FATA. Will imposition of sharia with state blessing acknowledge the basic rights of women/ will women’s right to education, health care and free movement are ensued?

All these basic concerns of the women  in FATA who are already burq-clad, have restricted mobility and are suppressed in the name of patriarchy should be addressed if we want to talk about durable solutions in the region. Women become the worst victims of war and the biggest stakeholders of peace. How does our country expect a return to peace when women, who are already a part of the marginalized system, will be further persecuted with state blessings rule and their treatment of women are visible next door to us. Ignoring the question of women and their stake in the possible imposition of the Taliban version of sharia in FATA in our dialogue with the Taliban  rule and their treatment of women are visible next door to  us. Ignoring the question of women and their stake in the possible imposition of the Taliban version of sharia in FATA in our dialogue with that Taliban is criminal neglected and one that our liberals are quit about since achieving peace is a desperate priority for the state. Recently the senate passes a resolution asking the government to protect the rights of women and minorities in the peace talks but how is that resolution extendible or binding on the government when FATA outside the jurisdiction of parliament?

Peace talks with Taliban

Peace talks with Taliban

It was perhaps inevitable that the wave of intensified attacks by terrorists since the talks with the Pakistani Taliban began should sooner or later become a serious threat to the very continuation of the dialogue. That point appeared to have been reached on Friday in Pakistan when the two committees appointed by the government of Pakistan and Taliban met later producing a joint statement. The statement reveals more in what it does not say rather than what it explicitly spells out. The committees want the Taliban to suspend all terrorist attacks while the talks are ongoing. In a bit of face saving, the Taliban appointed committee put in the two cents worth by asking the government too not to take any actions that may impact negatively on the talks. As though  the government has actually lifted even a finger to assault the terrorists, one positive in the statement was the call for the Taliban to release kidnaps of former Chief minister of Punjab’s son. Hone hopes that the talks process will at least yield this humanitarian outcome. The Taliban appointed committee head by a Maulana  called an Ulema conference on Saturday to garner support for the peace talks. He also voiced his hope that a ceasefire would be achieved with 48 hours according Pakistan standard time. We shall see the Taliban are being consulted by the Maulana and company regarding the government’s strict message that a continuation of the attacks and the talks cannot run side by side. In the first 45 days of 2014, 46 attacks have occurred all over the country in which several people have been killed including civilians and personnel of the security forces and several were injured. All this was going on while not a single drone strike was in evidence since December 2013. That should take the wind out of the sails of those like imran who had pegged the terrorist attacks to realization against drones. Another hand General Kayani had said a military operation would bring down terrorist attacks by 40 percent straight away of the 35 attacks since January. All the other attacks have either been denied by them or a pregnant silence maintained. Conspiracy therories of a third force operation to sabotage the peace talks have provide to be so much nhot air. Attacks in Karachi and elwswhere in the country are continuing. A rangers sector commander in Karachi escaped a suicide bombing on Friday but four people including ranger officer were also injured and killed. This is the same area in which three polio workers were gunned down last month, Peshawar’s cinemas have closed indefinitely after two recent blasts. The prospects for peace talks were always dim. First and foremost what the growing frustration of the committees wows is that the composition of these committee in which the government or elected members of parliament on the one hand and Taliban on the other are not directly represented, have no powers to take decision but can only act as conducts passing massages back and forth between the government and the Taliban. This could turn out to be a long and cumbersome process which if the terrorist incidents continue, could come a cropper soon. Will the civilian and military sides agree on what is to be done and how to go about it? The next few days hear for better watching. 

Civil War & Taliban

Civil War & Pakistani Taliban

Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Karachi that killed many peoples and civilians  and injured others. Ostensibly as revenge for the killing of Taliban commander last may. The Pakistani Taliban negotiating said it was almost ready for a ceasefire if the government promised not to take any military action. We don’t yet know what it seems clear that no matter what the government does the Taliban will find excuses to continue attacks. Despite a halt in drone strikes since December and no action by the military since mid January the Taliban claim they don’t trust the army and trust the government little more but the question remains should we trust them? If the continuous stream of terrorist attacks is any indication we have no reason to. Meanwhile member of the Taliban negotiating team have openly declared their support for the militants and made claims about hundreds of suicide bombers ready to unleash terror. Naked threats and the continuing use of force have made the Taliban strategy painfully clear, and the government can no longer afford to stick its head in the sand about them; the Taliban are using the time and space from negotiations to prepare while continuing to sow terror essentially weakening the government’s resolve to fight back. At the same time, negotiations have given them a plate form to preach their ideology on mainstream media, lambasting the government and army while claiming to be fighting for constitutional rights. Attacks on infrastructure threaten to destroy what little Pakistan has built over the last 50 years and turn the country into another Afghanistan. A country without infrastructure would be that much easier for the Taliban to control, which is why they target civil and military installations necessary to maintain effective state control. The Taliban vision of the future is this a broken army that is too afraid to attack because of the possibility of widespread urban warfare; co-option of the state by forcing their representatives into the highest official positions; control of the courts through the same method; enforcement of their ideology on the streets with bands of armed thugs. With this in mind, the Taliban aim to provoke a full scale civil war across the country, eventually letting them control whatever battered remnants remain after thousands have died. From its cowed statements the government of Pakistan hasn’t waked up to this fact yet through awareness might be growing – slowly – as interior ministry of Pakistan explained her statement. However with the Taliban preparing for full scale war time is of the essence and the government of Pakistan must wake up before it is too late and the country is in a position that makes the last few years look like Eid by comparison. 

Talks that are more conductive and negotiations seem to be in vogue right now with the Pakistani government pulling out all the stops in having a dialogue, even with the terrorists. However much less controversial are the talks that PM of Pakistan is currently in Turkey. The usual jingles were heard and promises made on enhancing cooperation and pouring in all efforts to sustain peace in the region. However  there was one stand out point made by none other than PM of Pakistan who vowed to facilitate in every way possible peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan through an Afghan led and Afghan owned process. Afghan President Mr. Karzai finally voiced his acknowledgement of the presence of dreaded Mullah Fazlullah, the head of the Taliban of Pakistan in Afghanistan where he is enjoying a relatively safe haven.  He has voiced his displeasure that the Mullah 's presence there is a direct consequence of inaction and is a violation of the territory of his country by the militants. Mullah Fazlullah is enjoying safety and refuge in the stronghold of the Haqqani network where the writ of the Afghan security forces and government just does not seem to extend. the fact that Karzai has displayed his refusal to allow this stalemate to carry on much further may mean that the Mullah's number will soon be up. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have been in a tense gridlock on this issue for a while now blaming one another for providing sanctuary to the others enemy: Mullah Fazlullah for Pakistan and the Haqqani network for Afghanistan. These talks seem to point towards a semi-truce where both nations have decided to stop throwing the ball into the other court and are instead moving forward. 
Pakistan and Afghanistan have braced themselves for the aftereffects of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan at the end of this year, whatever they may be. We can carry on all we want about facilitation and acknowledgement of key events but the negotiations occurring in Pakistan along with the daily bombings and attacks by the terrorists will be a key factor in deciding how everything will go post during  the year 2014.

SAVE WILDLIFE

China holds the key to saving Africa’s wildlife.

Just 25 years ago, the convention on international Trade in Endangered species banned the worldwide trade in ivory products. This agreement marked the first coordinated international effort to stop the slaughter of endangered elephants and rhinos in Africa. Yet despite a fall in poaching levels in the nineties, they have risen once more fuelled by demand from the Far East for medicinal products.

According to a recent UN reports, nearly 25000 rhino remain in the wild and more than 10000 were killed in South Africa along last year. Prices for horns and tusks have never been higher. Between five and 10 percent of Africa’s remaining 400000 elephants are killed each year. If something is not done, they could be extinct within two decades.

These stark figures form the backdrop to the conference opening today in London, when ministers and wildlife campaigners from 50 countries will gather in an attempt to crack down on this grotesque trade a trade so lucrative that it has wider implications than wildlife preservation. The knock on effects cause political instability in the countries concerned, with  international criminal networks, rebel militias and terrorist groups drawn to the profits that can be made. The human cost in high too with more than 10000 rangers killed in recent years trying to stop the poachers.

What can be done? It is hard to deter poachers by force, given the money that can be made even lengthy jail sentences fail to deter, since few prosecutions are ever mounted. No the really key to ending this despicable trade is to tackle the demand side and it is to countries in eastern Asia notably China, that we must look for urgent action.

Beijing continues to operate a legal market in ivory as a result of a one off exemption granted in 2008. This is stoking demand, and must be closed down if any progress is to be made. The Chinese also need to embark on education programmes to debunk the idea that tusks, horns and tiger bones have any useful medical properties.

Education Can Save Pakistan

Only Education Can Save Pakistan

According to the UNESCO research, it is said that the social and physical edifices of modern society stand upon the foundations of education. Uneven and weak foundations make a bad base and this is what we have in Pakistan; a society that is uneven and fragile, which can be attributed to the ignorance and indoctrination that we spread in the name of education. Education in its classic sense is a means to character building and furthering the cause of civilization. Everyone seems to agree on this, so what is the problem? The issue that needs to be addressed concerns the fundamental meaning of the term education. Is just teaching our children skills sufficient to read, write and become cogs in the ever expanding industrial behemoth of this capitalistic world enough? Or is their more to it than that?

To find an answer to this rather confounding question we will have to developer and go back to the basics and redefine terms like education, civilization and character. The meaning of these terms has broadened with the passage of time. In today’s world, education is not only a conduit to pass on society’s collective will knowledge and values to posterity but is also a means to equip young people with the necessary tools and skills to live in a society founded on the principles of democracy, tolerance and equality for all. In a more practical and physical sense, education should not only train the younger generation to face and tackle the situations and challenges of a technological and ever changing world but also prepare them to live in a civilized world that is at peace with itself. In other words the youth of a society should not only have a firm grasp on the values that their society as an entity believes in but should also be taught  to respect and tolerate the values and beliefs of other societies and communities.

Education leads to yet another question; what can education do to create a just tolerant and democratic society? To achieve the goal of education in its most modern and academic sense societies have to devise and crate curricula and syllabi that encourage critical thinking, and inspire a scientific approach based on objectivity towards issues and problems in everyday life. Members of an educated and enlightened society should have the mental capacity and intellectual courage to question every thing. Syllabi that make students think critically and objectively are harbingers of success  and happiness in a society. Education, which supports and emphasizes scientific thinking, ultimately creates a populace that is not a blind followers of whatever they are told, and cannot be sacrificed on the altar of fake national ego and the political interests of certain groups and individuals.

An educated and academically robust citizenry is a great asset for any state. This kind of population is a must for a thriving economy, vibrant democracy and stable society. Education no indoctrination based on falsification of history, distortion of culture and demonization of others is the only way to achieve prosperity and respect in the comity of nations for Pakistan. If the leaders and the rulers are interested which they do not seem to be in the nurturing of a democratic and educated society then they really need to address the root cause of the problem which is ignorance and the uneducated illiterates that we produce through our present educational system. The first step in the right direction will be changing the curricula and syllabi and making them more thought provoking and objective. This will require a lot of courage, planning and guts on the part of the leadership but is the only way left for us to move forward.  Yes this will not solve all our problems overnight but it will be the first step in the light direction, this small step will be a giant leap for our educational system. 

Pak-India Nuclear Treaty

Pak India NSG

India’s NSG participation seriously threatens the credibility of the NSG. After the first  Indian nuclear test on May 18 1974, the US, Canada , The Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, the UK, France and the Soviet Union joined hands to coordinate their nuclear export controls. All these seven nuclear supplier countries were totally convinced of the fact that the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty was not doing enough to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. The plutonium used in India’s nuclear test was diverted from the safeguarded, Candu reactors supplied by Canada. The group of seven countries met for the first time in 1975 in London and is thus popularly referred to as the London group. In 1977 membership was expanded to 15 states and after the 9/11 attacks, the nuclear suppliers group emerged as the world’s leading multilateral nuclear export control body that governs international trade of nuclear related materials and technology.

The NSG’s original aim was to supplement the nuclear non proliferation treaty which permits peaceful use of nuclear energy but also prevents nuclear technology from being used for military purposes. Yet in the light of major developments, particularly the increasing nuclear proliferation outside multilateral controls, the NSG faces a host of challenges ranging from big question marks on its credibility to a growing debate about engaging nuclear states outside the NSG framework. In the course of globalization the world’s nuclear industry is rapidly evolving into a system of compels proliferation transactions involving independent financiers and traders whose shady dealings are totally disconnected from the world of nuclear trade controls.

India- Pakistan are also two nuclear armed countries that are non signatories to the NPT, have expressed interest in joining the NSG. However it is not easy to decide about accepting Delhi and Islamabad into the NSG. The question of expanding membership will have to be decided from the perspective of the NSG remaining fundamentally committed to the goals of the NPT or developing into a group of state that is capable of engaging in nuclear exports. Many countries have frequently complained that the NSG constitutes a cartel of nuclear technology owners. Pakistan also demands a civilian nuclear deal similar to the India-US accord that allows India access to nuclear technology despite being a non-signatory to the NPT. However there is not considerable diplomatic support in favour of Pakistan’s request due to our poor non-proliferation track record. While conducting the research on nuclear terrorism at a US based institute, it is raised this issue with many US nuclear experts about whether the US should extend cooperation with Pakistan in civilian nuclear technology. The experts opined that in addition to proliferation threats, Pakistan due to its poor economic situation might not be able to buy sensitive  nuclear technology even if the US agrees to any such kind of deal.

At the moment, it is certainly difficult to predict the outcome of the debate over expansion of the NSG membership but if a decision is taken in favour of creating an exception only for India has the potential to render the NSG irrelevant to the detriment of nonproliferation norms. How the NSG resolves this issue will inevitably shape its future role in the future nonproliferation agenda.