Pakistan Become Failed State

Pakistan beyond a failed state.

It is called the crises state. But it is better to define as a failed state. As a condition of state collapse, a state that can no longer perform its basic security and development functions and has no effective control over its territory and borders. The index ranks are based on 12 indicators of state vulnerability, for social two economic and six political.

The demographic pressures, including pressures deriving from high population density relative to food supply, massive movement of refugees and internally displaced people and forced uprooting of large communities as a result of random or targeted violence and repression. A legacy of vengeance seeking group grievance. Base on recent or past injustices, this could date back centuries, including atrocities committed with impunity against communal groups and or specific groups singled out by state authorities or by dominant groups. Chronic and sustained human flight both the brain drain of professionals and intellectuals. Political dissidents and voluntary emigration of the middle class. Growth of exile/ expat communities are also used as part of this indicator.

Some more political indicators represent the security apparatus as a state with a state an emergence of state sponsored or state supported private militias that terrorism political opponents rise of factionalized elites, a fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines used of aggressive nationalistic rhetoric by ruling elites and finally intervention of other states military or affairs at risky by outside armies and states. The characterization of Pakistan as ingrained in popular discourse that its mention is often taken as a given and barely raises  an y eyebrow.

 It is certainly a cause for concern to be ranked as the only country in the subcontinent in the high risk category where all other in that bracket, apart from northern neighbor Afghanistan are either in Africa or the Middle East.

Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world and one of a handful of nations possessing nuclear weapons. Whether it is deemed to have failed is debated across the globe. While Pakistan is wracked with problems of militancy, social inequality, environmental degradation and bureaucratic incompetence, it is still in most parts a functioning society where millions of people manage to live, work and raise families with a reasonable degree of stability and security.

There are however cadres of professionals workers working enthusiastically towards significant progress even in this unsatisfactory situation and life goes on more or less normally in Pakistan. It is undoubtedly driven by patriotism, which runs deep despite the nation’s divisions. That is why it is object that whenever it hears Pakistan referred to as a failed state. So long as Pakistani society remains strong and provides some inbuilt guarantees, Pakistan will not become a failed state. The situation is no doubt difficult but matters are gradually improving.

Now Pakistan is working responsibly with the international community, Freeing policy is shaped so as to get necessary benefits from allies and friends of Pakistan through trade and commerce while participating in international forums. We still have many priorities but the chief thrust can be summarized as the following priority order: elimination of fundamentalism and terrorism, with restoration of law and order. There should be a major thrust at real, non ideological education through better institutions, serious focus on rural development, lack of which still incapacities the nation and remodeling of our foreign policy with due civilian control, including proper checks and balances. There must be thrust on public health including elimination of preventable diseases such as polio. Development of public infrastructure such as power, water and non –urban roads, development of trade, commerce, tourism and even heavy industry, which we mostly lack so far, are the needs of today.

In sum despite our problems Pakistan is certainly not a failed state. Pakistan still has a significant presence in software, banking, electronic media and crafts markets. Our universities have produced good professionals working domestically and abroad. We have a functioning democracy and judiciary. We have rapidly rising public awareness for a need to change. We have proved the prophets of doom false and can proudly look forward to a proud and elite nationhood. 

Challenging For China

Challenging of China

Peace with China is a far more important than power over China.

The west the US especially has gotten itself  into a fretful mood over the rise of China. Quite unnecessarily so. The Chinese growth rate is slowing. China never will hit double digit growth again. Why do we fuss so much every time China seems to kick over the traces a little as with its declaration a few weeks ago of an air defence zone. Over the south China Sea? China historically does not go in for conquest. It prefers what he calls osmosis. China seems to have no territorial ambitions beyond its current borders, a part  from Taiwan, which is a special case. The ruling communist party is not by nature evangelical. Asia militarily would be a formidable undertaking. China today faces an increasingly economically and politically powerful Russia in the north Japan (the world’s third largest economy) and South Korea, with their US military alliances to the east. The disinterestedness of trade and finance is an anti-conflict potion. These days the flag has very little to do with availability.  How could China benefit from depriving the US of iron ore or computers? How could the US benefit from depriving China of oil or as a haven for its vast savings? What spat over t he ownership of contested islands in the South and East China seas would be worth a breakdown in such commerce? Simply put the highest priority for the US is for the Chinese economy to remain vibrant, growing and open to US, Japanese, South Korean and European business and for its politics to remain non-nationalistic which means not provoking it.

The US in fact has no recourse but to share power with China in Asia. Over the long run this will means the US diluting a great deal of its political authority in Asia. It must be prepared to accept Chinese equality. The US must shunt aside its long held policy of exceptionalism. If it wants China to follow the rules of the global community it must set a better example itself. In recent years, the US has conducted naval hydrographic operations in China’s Exclusive economic zone. It has conducted naval exercises near the Yellow sea. This is not good. The US must ratify the UN’s Law of the sea and obey it. But the US certainly does not want a hot war with China. Nor should it allow itself to let matters slide into a Cold War. Peace with China is a far more important than power over China. 

THE NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

THE NUCLEAR DETERRENCE WORKS.

The Concept Of Nuclear Deterrence Gained Increased  prominence during the Cold War period when a generation of national security scholar and practioners, including. However most academic research on the subject is directed towards explaining the theoretical modalities of nuclear deterrence rather than a systematic analysis of the empirical evidence on the efficacy of nuclear weapons as a deterrent. In the 21^st century the growing efforts to stigmatizes and ultimately ban nuclear weapons reflect on shift in the nuclear weapons debate a shift that aims at challenging the long held myth of nuclear deterrence. The nuclear optimism are so assertive in the view that the influence in both academia and policy making circles can easily be seen. More  importantly though powerful lobbies in almost all nuclear weapon states have developed stakes in vast nuclear establishments, spending budgets of billions of dollars. These vested interests always resist efforts to cut down nuclear weapon. The trump argument in favour of retaining  nuclear weapons capability is that the use of nuclear weapons brought an early end to World War II. The nuclear deterrence is an unsound basis for the national security policy because it is neither as effective at political persuasion nor as capable of influencing military conflicts as many proponents of nuclear weapons would have us believe. For total reliance on the nuclear deterrence strategy it has to be prefect but historical records show that deterrence could work only in a few cases. Even a single case of failure has the potential to lead to a nuclear war. More alarmingly deterrence threats due to their inherently uncertain nature sometimes lead enemy nations to behave in ways that are quite inimical to achieving the goal of deterring aggression. During the early years of cold war, nuclear proponents would claim that the presence of nuclear weapons had enormous potential to ensure success in political negotiations while preventing all sorts of conventional or nuclear attacks. It is part of the historical record that the possession of nuclear capability by the US could not intimidate the Russians during talks after World War II. It is also proved the second part of the argument wrong that nuclear weapons could prevent any sort of attack. Israeli nuclear capability could not prevent a number of Muslim states from stating an all out war for regaining occupied territory and for Palestinian independence. The efficacy of the nuclear umbrella was also questioned when the United Kingdome  and France developed their own nuclear capability despite concrete assurances of security from the US.

The idea of the nuclear deterrence is too fragile to be relied upon and the fear of massive nuclear retaliation is not always able to prevent countries from taking the course of action they want. The emerging threat of nuclear terrorism is also a question mark on the efficacy of nuclear deterrence because terrorist groups hardly take well thought out rational decisions, as state are believed to take. The continued existence of nuclear weapons is also the reason for their gradual spread. So long as even one country has nuclear capability others will also want to acquire that status gradually.

Lifestyle disorders health Issues

Lifestyle disorders main health  issues in Arab World.

Heart diseases and stroke have replaced infectious disease as the top causes of early death in the Arab world. An international consortium of scientists compared the state of health in the 22 countries of the Arab League in 1990 and in 2010 using data from a vast study.

In 1990 respiratory infection headed the list of concerns accounting for 11% of deaths, while stillbirths and poor nutrition also featured high on the mortality list. These problems are still persist in the low income countries of Arab. But overall, infectious disease with the exception of HIV have receded at top.

The main cause in Arab countries was heart disease, which was implicated in 14.3% of cases. It had ranked second, next on the mortality list was stroke, followed by respiratory infection, diarrhea, diabetes, road injuries and cirrhosis, respectively. The report also pointed to depression, anxiety, domestic violence, lower back pain and neck pain as common and grown sources of ill health all of signs of a region undergoing a major epidemiological transition. Indeed, the epidemiological profile closely resembles that of western Europe the USA and Canada.

The region has also seen a rapid increase in injuries associated with interpersonal violence and self-harm but a decline in injuries from fire, the Arab world has made great progress in increasing life expectancy and reducing infant mortality of maternal deaths.

According to the sources, it is said that material predated most of the events of the Arab uprising.

In some of Arabian countries turbulence could have a big impact on health. Many of the successes that might now be lost because of war and a shortage of health services such as sanitation, surveillance and immunization programmes leading to disease outbreaks. 

Russia and US in Afghanistan

Russia needs the US in Afghanistan

What happens in Afghanistan deeply concerns Russia. At the moment, uncertainty regarding Afghanistan’s future runs height with the withdrawal date of Western forces coming closer day by day (especially after recent fall to Islamic state of Iraq and Lebanon). The worse case scenario for the Russians, after the withdrawal, will be a complete take over by the Taliban. Chances of such an immediate takeover by the Taliban are very low. However in the absence of foreign support, it is not unthinkable that after the withdrawal, that the Taliban will take over Afghanistan in few years.

The US and Iran nuclear deal reached last year is a very recent example of how two countries with ideologies  on different ends of the spectrum can come together to achieve their political objectives. Russia faces serious threats to its stability from Islamic insurgencies. Recent suicide blasts in Volgograd were a painful reminder of this.

Historically, Russia has tried to suppress Islamic movements (also religious activities in general) not only in Russia but also in Central Asian states (especially in the time of the Soviet Union). The failure of such policies led  to the rise of Islamism in Central Asia (especially in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  

Russia has continued to provide support to Central Asian governments to fight Islamic insurgencies as it considers Central Asian countries as buffers states between it and the Islamic world.

The Afghan National Security Force has made some gains in recent years but their capability in absence of foreign funding and support is not clear, there has also been an increasing number of deaths, causing an impact on the morale. Meanwhile the Taliban on the other hand are patient and organized. They can make slow gains, gaining more support with every victory and moving towards a dominant position in Afghanistan. This will have a direct impact  on Russia’s buffer zones. It will be only a matter of time before the Taliban will make their way to neighboring countries to aid Islamic insurgents.

The only possible way for Russia to avoid this is to convince the international community to continue to its support Afghanistan and which is not going to be possible unless the Afghan president, signs the bilateral treaty with the Americans allowing them to keep certain bases and portion of its forces in Afghanistan. Although it is widely believed that the contract will be eventually signed, with every passing day there are increasing spats between the Afghans and the Americans.

The Russians here can play a very important role, they have strong ties with Afghanistan from the Soviet era and also through supporting groups that fought the Taliban after the fall of the Soviet Union. They can help the Americans convince the Afghans to sign the agreement. By doing so they will be indirectly facilitating the peace talks with Taliban and will have to come to terms with the Taliban having some power in the Afghan power structure. But this is the only way peace can be achieved.  

Even though these bases can potentially be used by Americans in future against the Russians, for anything from running spy network to influencing Afghan policies towards Russia, Moscow may conclude that the US are essential to keep Taliban out of a dominant position and hence keeping Russia’s  vital geopolitical interests safe. This convergence of interests between American and Russians can cause a strategic shift of alliances. This is an interesting situation that the Chinese may view with suspicion. They most certainly want to keep the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, but at the same time like Moscow they are keen to benefit from the natural resources in the country.

US Security Impact in Afghanistan

The security impact in Afghanistan

The US officials are struggling again with Afghan President after painful and prolonged negotiations, they concluded a draft bilateral security agreement last year that lays the foundation for leaving US military forces in Afghanistan after 2014. It is also expected to involve 10000 to 12000 US troops with counterterrorism, training and other responsibilities in support of Afghan forces. Most US experts on Afghanistan believe that such a residual force is critical if Afghan forces are to continue to professionalize. Only with such  help will they have a reasonable chance of containing the Taliban and giving Afghan authorities the space to negotiate a political settlement that includes the Taliban. Some NATO forces would remain but only if US troops stay.

According the US experts that without residual forces, the billions of dollars in financial support promised for Afghanistan security forces and for Afghanistan’s economic development will not materialize. Some of them believe that any Afghan government would survive long without this assistance. So the stakes are high for Afghanistan and for preserving the investment of lives and treasure that the United States and its coalition allies have made over the past 13  years.

Initially Afghan president said that he would sign the agreement after a loyajirga, a traditional congregation of Afghan leaders, approved the impact. The loyajirga approved the deal in November before but Karzazi demanded further concessions an end to counterterrorism raids into Afghan homes at high active US support for the peace process with the Taliban and non-interference in the presidential election that will determine of his successor.

At last he has threatened to leave the matter to his successor. US official have responded by pressuring Karzai directly and indirectly. They have set a succession of deadlines and said the agreement must be signed within weeks not in months. So far nothing has worked. There is one option would be for President Obama to make a public statement praising Afghanistan’s progress in assuming responsibility for its security, improving the education, health and well-being of its citizen and preparing for the coming election to be held in April.

Obama has said directly to US forces to curtail all but essential night raids. He is committed to facilitating the peace process and pledges full support for an election free from all outside influences. Soon after, Obama could announce the number of troops that he is prepared to leaved in Afghanistan post 2014 and direct the Pentagon to develop plans on that basis, but the Karzai’s had, encourages further delay and makes the United States look desperate.

Obama should make clear that his commitment of troops is dependent on the bilateral security agreement being signed. But a signing by a new Afghan president would give more than enough time to complete the necessary US military planning before  year’s end.

Obama should avoid any suggestion that he might embrace a Zero option and leave to US troops in Afghanistan after 2014. Almost every Afghan expert believes that would destabilize Afghanistan, threaten the outcome of the election and risk the collapse of Afghanistan security forces.

All of this would profoundly affect US security interests. Afghanistan again would become a haven for terrorists who history whose would attack US interests and territory. Afghanistan would contribute to destabilizing a nuclear armed Pakistan and the Afghan people would forfeit the progress they have made with our help in building a more tolerant inclusive secure and prosperous society.

News About Titanic

Chinese firm has built replica of Titanic

It is said that recently Chinese firm has planned to spend more than 165$ million building a full scale replica of the Titanic the doomed luxury liner which sank more than a century ago as the main attraction for them park.

The original and supposedly unsinkable luxury passenger liner struck an iceberg and went down in the North Atlantic in 1912, killing more than 1500 people.

The famous ship is a subject of immense  fascination for many in China particularly after the 1997 release a film. It is said that the cost of which is expected to  is 1 billion yuan will be the main attraction for a planned theme park located Sichuan a landlocked province famous for its spicy food. There the replica will be docked permanently on a river the South China.

When the Titanic was about to sink, the greatest responsibility was show  and that spirit goes beyond borders. Chinese chose to rebuild the Titanic in China so that such spirit can be promoted or inherited in the east.

The replica will also recreate the experience of what it felt like when the luxury liner collided with the iceberg.

The construction of the ship which is 270 meter means 885 feet, long is expected to be completed in next two years and will be based on designs of the Titanic’s sister ship, which was in service from 1911  to 1935. The design and drawings are completed including a large ballroom and premium first class rooms.

Another hand the Flamboyant Australian tycoon Clive Palmer previously unveiled a plan last year to build a sea-worthy replica of the Titanic which is scheduled to make its first Atlantic crossing in 2016.