War Between Russia & Western

COLD WAR AGAINST RUSSIA

The crisis in Ukraine is increasingly taking a dangerous turn that some are warning could trigger a new cold war between Russia and the west. The crisis began with protests against the elected but widely considered corrupt government of former President  Viktor when he plumped for closer ties to Russia rather than the European Union. The mediated compromise agreement between Viktor and the opposition in the streets on 21^st Feb 2014, brokered by Germany, Poland and France, unraveled even before the ink was dry on it and this finally led to the ouster of the president and his flight to Russia, where he has been given protection. Meanwhile the Crimean peninsula where the Russian Baltic Fleet is stationed has been taken over by pro-Russian elements. Eastern Ukraine, overwhelmingly inhabited by people of Russian ethnic origin, could be the next pawn on chessboard. The fracturing on ethnic and political lines of Ukrainian national unity between pro-23st and pro-Russian groups spells either a breakup of the country or as Russia may be trying to achieve a federal solution that prevents Ukraine from turning wholesale from what Moscow sees as a Ukraine that is not Russia into a Ukraine in Opposition to Russia. Russia’s mobilization of 20000 troops after the duma gave President VIadimir permission to invade Ukraine if necessary to protect Russian-co-ethnics, defend the Russian Fleet’s base in the Crimea and ensure Ukraine does not become a hostile neighbor at the behest of the west has evoked a military mobilization in Ukraine by the interim government that replaced Yanukovyeh.

However no one has any doubts that the Ukrainian armed forces are no match for Russia’s might. US president and Secretary of State have warned Russia of the cost to be paid for its actions so far as well as if it invades Ukraine. These would include a likely cancellation of the impending G8 summit in Sochi in June, economic sanctions and a pullout of US and other western businesses from Russia. This threat seems unlikely to deter Putin, who since his rise to power has been battling western attempts at encroachment and worse in the near abroad, Russia’s neighbours that are former Soviet states. Since the implosion of the Soviet Union in 1991, the west has felt free to carry out military and subversive interventions in a host of countries to bring about regime change that suits its interests.

The US led west’s new-imperialism through direct military intervention or subversion through paid trained proxies on the streets is causing enough trouble all over the world. In the case of Ukraine it could engender a new conflict and even the beginning of a new cold war. The promise of peace, cooperation and progress after the end of the cold war has been dashed by western countries unabashed desire to subjugate the globe through military might and the power of capital. History suggests the west may be overplaying its hand and threatening humanity the world over with the unbridled ambition of dominance that cannot but engender enormous new tensions and conflict in a war weary world.

NEWS OF INDIAN NUCLEAR PLAN

INDIAN NUCLEAR POSTURE

Indian nuclear weapons programme was originally motivated more by the prestige factor than as a necessary means to meet real security threats a gradual shift in India’s nuclear posture over the past few years has been viewed as worrisome by the community of strategic thinkers. The statements of Indian policymakers and military generals  suggest a significant departure in its declaratory, if not its operational variation, from the official nuclear doctrine as revised in 203.

THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT NO NUCLEAR STATE IN THE WORLD IS TOTALLY IMMUNE TO SECURITY THREATS TO ITS NUCLEAR ASSETS, OR TO THE SIMPLE RISK OF SAFETY RELATED ACCIDENT. 

Influenced by a strong scientific community, India is moving away from its unequivocal policies of no first use (NFU) and maintaining a credible minimum deterrent, India’s development of its nuclear delivery capabilities can further play a destabilizing role by triggering a nuclear arms race in the region. Because of its geopolitical weight, New Delhi’s choices will have significant implications both for deterrence stability in the region and the future of the evolving world nuclear order.

The Indian nuclear establishment has also ditched its long-held claim of maintaining a credible minimum deterrent. Although much confusion surrounds what minimum means  in numbers credible minimum deterrence is no longer the driving aim of India’s nuclear doctrine. Achieving a credible minimum deterrent towards both of its primary strategic adversaries, China and Pakistan means substantially different levels of capability. What is credible toward China will not be minimum toward Pakistan and what is minimum toward Pakistan cannot be credible toward China. The probability of a major war with China is not very high so India’s nuclear posture should be framed keeping in view its primary deterrent adversary which is Pakistan and against whom they initially wanted to build a credible minimum deterrent. In addition, China is so advanced in nuclear capability that perhaps India will never be able to match China’s nuclear arsenal or delivery capability. But the prevailing attitudes toward nuclear weaponry among Indian nuclear security managers betray an over-obsession with China. such attitude will achieve nothing and start an unending nuclear arms race in South Asia. India’s conventional superiority could easily deter Pakistan from any attack against India, so India’s nuclear capability never had a strategic justification but was a desire for prestige.

There is no gainsaying the fact that India’s nuclear establishment is going down this potentially dangerous path due to the overriding influence of nuclear Scientifics and technical bureaucracies. Like Pakistan, the Civilian  political leadership due to complications of domestic politics, is not in a position to exercise authority over India’s vast  nuclear establishment.

On the other hand, the security of Pakistan’s nuclear programme has always received attention in the international media due to domestic political instability and growing international militant threats. There is little public discussion about  threats to the security of India’s huge civilian and military nuclear infrastructure. Instead, an overriding assumption exists that relevant agencies in India provide enough security to nuclear infrastructure. The fact of the matter is that no nuclear state in the world is totally immune to security threats to its nuclear assets, or to the simple risk of safety-related accidents. Giving the rapid growth of India’s nuclear arsenal over the past few years, different homegrown insurgents and militants have the potential to compromise India’s nuclear security. But there is no public information available about practical measures taken by New Delhi to counter internal threats to its nuclear weapons.

The current changes in India’s strategic posture and deployment patterns, whether politically sanctioned or not will surely force China and Pakistan to respond in ways that will likely prove determinate to  Indian and global security. India has been modernizing and expanding its forces both vertically and horizontally. Despite the world attention focused India’s nuclear doctrine may convert the terrorism. The mad pursuit of research Defense is totally inconsistent with anodic ability and uncertainty. Both India and Pakistan should halt expansion of their nuclear arsenals in order to enhance regional security.

AFGHANISTAN RAGES AGAINST UNITED STATES

AFGHANISTAN STEP DOWN AGAINST US

Afghan President has expressed extreme anger towards the United States as it prepares to end its 13 years war in Afghanistan, intensifying his criticism in his final months in power. Karzai has taken an increasingly antagonistic view of the US role in Afghanistan, despite formerly being a close all and accepting billions of dollars in aid since he took office after the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001.  

The president who will stand down after elections on April 5, lashed out at the US government and described Al-Qaeda, the Islamist militants behind the 9/11 attacks as more a myth than a reality. To the American people given them my best wishes an my gratitude to the US government give them my anger my extreme anger, Karzai the Washington post in an interview on Monday.

But there was no immediate response from the US embassy in Kabul, but relations between  the two countries have plunged to a new low as the final 55000 US-led NATO troops prepare to head home and Karzai enters his final months in office.

The Afghan president made a surprise decision late last year not to sign an agreed deal that would see 812000 US troops stay in Afghanistan after this year on a training an counter-terrorism mission.

It is good for them (the US) to sing it with my successor, he said in an interview Karzai vented his fury over civilian causalities caused during the war against the Taliban, who had sheltered al Qaeda while in power in Kabul from 1996-2001.

Why is American here? I cannot answer for America. The American president says they are here to fight extremism and terrorism and to secure America.

If they way toward securing America is raiding Afghan homes, fighting in Afghan villages well that will  not secure America. 

Afghan president refusal to sign a security deal with Washington that would permit foreign troops to stay in Afghanistan beyond this year has frustrated the White House, and President Obama has told the Pentagon to prepare for the possibility that no US troops will be left in Afghanistan after 2014.

Obama told Karazi in a phone call on Tuesday that he had given the order to the Pentagon. The Phone call was  the first substantive discussion between the two leaders since June.

But staking out a new position, the White House said in a statement it would leave open the possibility of concluding the bilateral security agreement later this year. It is  good for them to sign it with my successor.

On the other hand, The NATO-led force in Afghanistan has a current strength of more than 50000 soldiers including 33000 US troops, more than 34000 coalition forces have been killed in the fight against the Taliban including US troops.

While Afghanistan’s police and army are seen as having made big strides in their remain about whether they can keep a still – potent Taliban at by, especially in remote areas.

It is also stated by the Afghan leader that he was deeply troubled by the war’s causalities, including those in US military operation and felt betrayed by what he described as an insufficient US focus on going after Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan rather than in Afghan villages.

NUCLEAR STOCK OF IRAN

NUCLEAR STOCK OF IRAN

Iran is reducing its most proliferation prone nuclear stockpile as required by its landmark deal with world powers but much work remains to be completed to resolve all concerns about Tehran’s activities.

Among measures Iran is taking sincere the interim agreement took effect on Jan 20 is the dilution of its stock of higher enriched uranium to a fissile concentration less suitable for any attempt to fuel an atomic bomb.

Iran is living up to its part of the six month accord in curbing its disputed nuclear programme in exchange nuclear programme in exchange for some easing of sanctions that  have impaired its oil-dependent economy. As of today measures aged under the Joint Plan of Action is being implemented as planned.

Under the accord Iran suspended enrichment of uranium to 20 percent fissile concentration a relatively short technical step away from the level step away from the level required for nuclear bombs and is taking action to neutralize its holding of the material.

Iran is gradually winning access to 4.2$ billion of its oil revenues frozen abroad and some other sanctions relief. The funds will be paid out in eight transfers on a schedule that started with a $ 550 million payment by Japan on Feb.1

Separately the IAEA is investigating suspicious largely believed to be based on intelligence provided by Western gates and Israel, that Iran has researched how to construct an atomic bomb, a charge Tehran denies. Iran says it is Israel’s assumed  nuclear arsenal that threatens Middle East peace.

Amano made clear his determination that those allegations alleged experimentation and tests to develop the expertise needed to turn fissile material into a functioning atomic bomb must be cleared up. 

Bomb Blast in Islamabad

TERROR STRIKE IN ISLAMABAD

The gunmen burst into a courthouse complex in the heart of capital of Pakistan on Monday spraying bullets on every one, hurling hand grenades and later exploding their suicide blasts. During which at least 12 people including a senior judge of the court were killed and another 25 injured in the incident of suicide blasts. But on other hand, severe blow to the already stalled peace process with Taliban that was likely to see light of the day after both sides agreed to ceasefire just a day earlier.

Taliban were quick to distance themselves not only from the attack in Islamabad’s main court complex but also a separate bombing in KPK tribal region which killed two soldiers on Monday.

According to Taliban statement, they have already declared a ceasefire and they strictly adhere to their deal with the government. Their colleagues in the organization also cannot violate this agreement.

According to the eyewitnesses the attackers were armed with automatic weapons including Kalashnikovs and hand grenades hidden under the shawls they were covered with. They were wearing shalwar kameez bearded and had long hair.

According to the report, only two attackers were involved in the attack who later exploded their suicide jacket when confronted by the policemen. One of the attackers reportedly entered the courtroom of Sessions Judge where a hearing had just started, fired bullets at him and exploded himself when policemen on duty challenged him. The judge was killed on the spot. The other attacker blew himself up outside the chamber of a lawyer leader after killing and wounding scores of people with gunfire.

However some eyewitnesses were of the view that at least three of their companions fled in jeeps as fresh contingents of police armed.

Pools of blood, charred body parts and broken glass  scattered everywhere in the courtroom, chambers of the lawyers and the site of the suicide blasts.

It was the deadliest attack in the capital of Pakistan since September 2008 when a truck bomb killed 60 people at a five star hotel some years ago.

CHILD MARRIAGES IN PAKISTAN

CHILD MARRIAGE MUST BE STOPPED

Child marriages were common in human history of the world. Princess Emilia of Saxony, who was the daughter of Duke Henry of Saxony and his wife Catherine of Mecklenburg, in 1533, at the age of 16 years, married George the Pious, Margrave of Brandenburg-Ansbach and then 48 years old. Before modern history, child marriage was common everywhere in the world but with the advent of the 20^th century, immense decline has been observed around the globe. It is not worthy to mention that although the ratio of child marriages is declining across the world some countries in Africa and Asia still allow child marriages due to various reasons.

At first glance, it is pertinent to first find out what is meant by marriage in plain words. According to the UNICEF report of 2011 defines child marriage as a formal marriage or informal union of individuals before reaching the age of competency, which is normally 18 years.  In 2013 the first United Nations Human Rights Council resolution against child, early and forced marriages was adopted. It recognizes child marriage as a human rights violation and pledges to eliminate the practice as part of the UN post 2015 global development agenda. Child marriage is observed in almost every country in Africa and Asia except some. It is a reality for boys and girls both but girls are the most affected by the practice, most of whom are in poor socioeconomic situation.

It was claimed that the rate of marriage of eight to 13 years old girls exceeds 50% in the northwest regions of Pakistan. another custom in Pakistan, called vani, involves village elders solving family disputes or settling unpaid debts by marrying off girls. The average marriage age of swara girls is between five and nine. Similarly the custom of watta satta has been cited as a cause of child marriages in Pakistan. according to the population council, 35%  of all females in Pakistan become mothers before they reach the age of 18 and 67 percent have experienced pregnancy out of which 69 percent  have given birth before they reach the age of 19. Less than four percent married girls below the age of 19 had some say in choosing her spouse, over 80% were married to a near or distant relative.

Child marriage rates in Bangladesh are amongst the highest in the world. Every two out of three marriages  involve children. According to statistics from 2005 , 45 percent of women then between 25 percent and 29 percent had been married by the age of 15 in Bangladesh. According to the State of the World’s Children 2009, all women aged 20 to 24 were married before they were 18. The ministry of women and children’s affairs in making progress in increasing women’s education and employment opportunities. This combined with specific education about child marriage and cooperation with religious leaders is hoped to decrease child marriage.

In culmination it is submitted that child marriage is a reality and there is a need to enact laws that prohibit child marriages. This child marriage ratio is much higher in the subcontinent but even exists in Europe and the US. It is further said that child marriage is a violation of human rights in the advanced world. The constitution of Pakistan demands equality and promises no discrimination at all but child marriages happen in Pakistan every day, which shows that the social structure of Pakistan has not reached the point where it considers child marriages to be prohibited unions.

AIR STRIKES AGAINST TALIBAN STOPPED

PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT STOPPED 

AIR STRIKES AGAINST TALIBAN

in a balancing act, Pak government matched the Taliban’s on month ceasefire with announcement to suspend air strikes in the volatile tribal areas that have left more than 100 terrorists dead so far.

The announcement by the government of Pakistan to ground its fighter jets comes a day after Taliban announced they had decided not to carry out any activities for one month following a positive response from the government, an appeal from religious scholars in honour of the representative committee and in the greater interest of Islam and Pakistan.

Taliban statement is as like; (We announce a month long ceasefire from today and advise all our companions and subgroups to respect the decision of government of Pakistan and completely refrain from all jihad activities during this time period.)

Government of Pakistan considered Taliban’s announcement of ceasefire as a positive development. After the positive announcement by the Taliban the government of Pakistan has decided to halt the air strikes against militants which were continuing for the past few days. However it is also warned that government would effectively retaliate to any act of violence by the Taliban. Government and the army reserve the right to effectively respond to any act of violence.

As a result it is yet to be seen how Taliban react to government’s announcement of hitting back in the advent of any terrorist activity by the terrorists. Taliban groups opposed to peace talks may also try to derail the process. Where Taliban needs to effectively implement their ceasefire decision and ensure that none of its affiliates or even the dissidents indulge in a terrorist activity, the civilian leadership of the country will also have to join heads with the military leadership to take them into confidence bring them on the same page and devise a plan to make the peace initiative productive. The only thing is clear, the ceasefire announcement between government of Pakistan and Pakistani Taliban ha at least allowed the government to isolate and wipe out those opposed to the dialogue process.